“What I love about the aftermarket,” says Bedslide's Joel Ayres, “is that we’re such an innovative industry. When things appear in danger, I watch how we come back with something new.”

Ayres’ observation of the aftermarket rings true, noting further the growing number of products built in the United States.

Thule’s Karl Wiedemann looks to see an even stronger work truck market in 2012. “People will upgrade their trucks, spend more,” he says. “Consumers are less fear-based.”

But Wiedemann has his cautionary tale, too. While he sees more growth than decline this year, “it seems like everyone is doing lights, now,” and with that herd mentality “it may be a race to the bottom,” he says.

Extang Corp.’s Steve Kelley follows Wiedemann with his own “race to the bottom” scenario: margins. “At the wholesale and retail levels, no one wants to lose a customer,” he says. “So, they’re willing to shrink their margins. Everyone wants a deal. It won’t last long; it’s price erosion. What there should be is built-in value. So, price, margin and profitability is the challenging aspect.”

Tracking the market in 2011 turned into balancing roller-coaster numbers with intuition.

The third quarter of 2010, for example proved better than expected, but by the summer of 2011 sales plateaued, notes Kelley. “There were no good industry trends to track,” he says. “We’re not seeing cyclical trends; it’s getting more difficult to forecast. Take, for example [the spring of 2011]: extended winter, tornadoes, storms — these impacted people spending money.”

This year’s election — congressional and presidential — also seems to have created a lot of buzz. No matter one’s political bent, whatever promises candidates make that will be perceived to improve the economy, put the unemployed back into the workforce and see Americans spend more, the election could change the pieces on the chessboard or maintain the status quo or move the pieces in 2013 to act bolder and more decisively.

Retro USA’s Gary Green’s concern is that government regulations could “set back the industry.” Yet in nearly the same breath he adds that he hopes “the biggest news in 2012 will be the end of the economic slump, and the turning around and boosting of the auto industry.”

Westin Automotive’s Junior Calvert concurs: “The biggest news for 2012 will be the election — to get relief for the small-businessperson. … They need banks to loan them money to grow their businesses.”

“I hope it’s [good] growing pains,” Weathers Auto Supply's Mandy Woodell intones. “That’s why we’re hiring people.”